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Worksheet 19 of 30 (63% complete)
Question 1
You test positive for a rare disease (1 in 10,000 prevalence). The test is 99% accurate (1% false positive rate).
What is the approximate probability you actually have the disease?
With 10,000 people: 1 true case, but 100 false positives (1% of 9,999). So probability = 1/(1+100) ≈ 1%. This tests base rate neglect.
Question 2
Is this argument deductive or inductive?
Deductive arguments aim for logical necessity. If premises are true, conclusion must be true. This is a classic syllogism.
Question 3
Context: Debate in City Council about building a new stadium
Argument: I don't like sports so this is a waste of money
Which unstated assumption does this argument rely on?
Hidden assumption: Council members' personal preferences should determine policy. Without this assumption, the argument's conclusion may not follow from its premises.
Question 4
Is this argument deductive or inductive?
Deductive arguments aim for logical necessity. If premises are true, conclusion must be true. This is a classic syllogism.
Question 5
Is this argument deductive or inductive?
Deductive arguments aim for logical necessity. If premises are true, conclusion must be true. This is a classic syllogism.
Question 6
Argument: We should require voter ID because it prevents fraud.
Which is the STRONGEST counterargument?
The strongest counterargument addresses the premise (fraud prevalence) and shows the policy's harm outweighs its benefit, using evidence.
Question 7
Argument: We should ban smoking in all public places because secondhand smoke is harmful.
Which unstated assumption (missing premise) is necessary for this argument to be logically valid?
The missing premise is: The government has a duty to protect citizens from preventable harm caused by others.. Without this assumption, the conclusion doesn't necessarily follow from the given evidence.
Question 8
Topic: Should standardized testing be eliminated from schools?
Argument: Yes, because everyone learns differently
Evaluate the strength of this argument:
Weak argument: Relies on emotion, generalizations, or lacks supporting evidence
Question 9
Argument by analogy: 'We ban violent movies for children. Violent video games are similar in their violent content. Therefore, we should also ban violent video games for children.'
What is the STRONGEST counterargument to this analogy?
Interactive vs. passive consumption is a key difference that may make the analogy weak. Good analogical reasoning requires relevant similarities outweigh relevant differences.
Question 10
Question: Should companies be required to provide paid parental leave?
Argument: No, because mandatory benefits increase labor costs and may reduce hiring
Is this a strong or weak argument?
Strong argument: Identifies specific economic mechanism and potential consequence
Question 11
What is the logical form of this argument?
Form: If P then Q. Q is true. Therefore P. This is affirming the consequent, a formal fallacy. The ground could be wet from sprinklers, not rain.
Question 12
Topic: Should standardized testing be eliminated from schools?
Argument: Yes, because everyone learns differently
Which new piece of evidence would most weakens this argument?
This weakenss the argument because: Anecdotal evidence is low quality
Question 13
Question: Should companies be required to provide paid parental leave?
Argument: No, because mandatory benefits increase labor costs and may reduce hiring
Is this a strong or weak argument?
Strong argument: Identifies specific economic mechanism and potential consequence
Question 14
What missing counterfactual would best test this claim?
The key counterfactual is the 'no-policy' baseline. If jobs would have grown by 50,000 anyway due to economic recovery, the tax cut had no effect.
Question 15
To properly evaluate whether the diversity training CAUSED the increase in minority hiring, what counterfactual would you need to compare against?
Counterfactual reasoning asks: 'What would have happened otherwise?' Without a baseline or control, you can't isolate the training's effect from other factors (e.g., a tight labor market).
Question 16
What is the logical form of this argument?
Form: If P then Q. Q is true. Therefore P. This is affirming the consequent, a formal fallacy. The ground could be wet from sprinklers, not rain.
Question 17
Proposal: Implementing a four-day work week nationwide
Argument: People have worked 5 days a week for decades, so we shouldn't change it
Evaluate this argument across multiple criteria (evidence quality, relevance, comprehensiveness):
Argument by analogy: 'We ban violent movies for children. Violent video games are similar in their violent content. Therefore, we should also ban violent video games for children.'
What is the STRONGEST counterargument to this analogy?
Interactive vs. passive consumption is a key difference that may make the analogy weak. Good analogical reasoning requires relevant similarities outweigh relevant differences.
Question 19
Argument: We should require voter ID because it prevents fraud.
Which is the STRONGEST counterargument?
The strongest counterargument addresses the premise (fraud prevalence) and shows the policy's harm outweighs its benefit, using evidence.
Question 20
In this argument: 'All humans are mortal. Socrates is human. Therefore, Socrates is mortal.'
Which statement is the CONCLUSION?
The conclusion is what the argument tries to prove. The premises ('All humans are mortal' and 'Socrates is human') support the conclusion 'Socrates is mortal.'