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Sequential Decision Trees Beginner-Intermediate Worksheet: Focus on common variations practice Sequential Decision Trees BEGINNER INTERMEDIATE

Level up your Sequential Decision Trees skills! You're at Worksheet 4 of 10 (33% through this series). This step-up challenge worksheet features 20 beginner-intermediate-level problems with a focus on common variations practice. Topics covered: sequential decision trees for competitive exams, how to solve sequential decision trees, sequential decision trees tricks.

📝 Worksheet 4 of 10 • 20 questions • ⏱️ Estimated time: 20 minutes • 🎯 Beginner Intermediate level

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Worksheet 4 of 10 (33% complete)

Question 1

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 2

Decision: Invest in R&D for new product or improve existing product? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
New product: 30% success → 500 profit, 70% failure → -200 loss = EV = 150-140=10. Improve existing: 80% success → 200 profit, 20% no gain = EV=160. Existing product improvement has higher EV.

Question 3

Decision: Expand to international market or focus on domestic growth? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
International: 25% chance of 1000 profit, 75% chance of 100 loss → EV=250-75=175. Domestic: 60% chance of 400 profit, 40% chance of 50 loss → EV=240-20=220. Domestic focus has higher expected value.

Question 4

Decision: Expand to international market or focus on domestic growth? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
International: 25% chance of 1000 profit, 75% chance of 100 loss → EV=250-75=175. Domestic: 60% chance of 400 profit, 40% chance of 50 loss → EV=240-20=220. Domestic focus has higher expected value.

Question 5

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 6

Decision: Outsource manufacturing or build in-house facility? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Outsource: guaranteed 300 cost savings. In-house: 70% chance of 500 savings, 30% chance of 100 loss → EV=350-30=320. Outsourcing gives guaranteed savings with lower risk.

Question 7

Decision: Invest in R&D for new product or improve existing product? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
New product: 30% success → 500 profit, 70% failure → -200 loss = EV = 150-140=10. Improve existing: 80% success → 200 profit, 20% no gain = EV=160. Existing product improvement has higher EV.

Question 8

Decision: Outsource manufacturing or build in-house facility? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Outsource: guaranteed 300 cost savings. In-house: 70% chance of 500 savings, 30% chance of 100 loss → EV=350-30=320. Outsourcing gives guaranteed savings with lower risk.

Question 9

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 10

Decision: Launch new product now or wait 6 months for more market research? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Launch now: 40% success → expected value = 0.4×1000 = 400. Wait: 70% success after research → expected value = 0.7×900 = 630 (accounting for 100 research cost). Higher EV makes waiting optimal.

Question 11

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 12

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 13

Decision: Outsource manufacturing or build in-house facility? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Outsource: guaranteed 300 cost savings. In-house: 70% chance of 500 savings, 30% chance of 100 loss → EV=350-30=320. Outsourcing gives guaranteed savings with lower risk.

Question 14

Decision: Invest in R&D for new product or improve existing product? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
New product: 30% success → 500 profit, 70% failure → -200 loss = EV = 150-140=10. Improve existing: 80% success → 200 profit, 20% no gain = EV=160. Existing product improvement has higher EV.

Question 15

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 16

Decision: Accept job offer immediately or negotiate with current employer? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Accept: guaranteed 25% raise. Negotiate: 50% chance of 15% raise, 50% chance of 0% raise → expected = 7.5% raise. Guaranteed 25% > expected 7.5%.

Question 17

Decision: Launch new product now or wait 6 months for more market research? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Launch now: 40% success → expected value = 0.4×1000 = 400. Wait: 70% success after research → expected value = 0.7×900 = 630 (accounting for 100 research cost). Higher EV makes waiting optimal.

Question 18

Decision: Expand to international market or focus on domestic growth? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
International: 25% chance of 1000 profit, 75% chance of 100 loss → EV=250-75=175. Domestic: 60% chance of 400 profit, 40% chance of 50 loss → EV=240-20=220. Domestic focus has higher expected value.

Question 19

Decision: Outsource manufacturing or build in-house facility? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Outsource: guaranteed 300 cost savings. In-house: 70% chance of 500 savings, 30% chance of 100 loss → EV=350-30=320. Outsourcing gives guaranteed savings with lower risk.

Question 20

Decision: Launch new product now or wait 6 months for more market research? Based on expected value analysis, what is the optimal strategy?
Launch now: 40% success → expected value = 0.4×1000 = 400. Wait: 70% success after research → expected value = 0.7×900 = 630 (accounting for 100 research cost). Higher EV makes waiting optimal.
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